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Flood disasters have become increasingly common in recent years, all over the world, often together with increasing drought conditions and unseasonal freezing.
The freezing is disastrous for agriculture. It destroys fruit crops in extreme cases, in areas that used to be totally safe. We have seen greenhouses collapse under snow loads. We have seen agricultural crops decimated by frost snaps as far south as Mexico. We have even seen snowfall in the Sahara recently.
We have seen large areas devastated by increasing drought conditions, as in the case of California.
And we have seen once mighty rivers that once filled great reservoirs, almost dry up.
We now see their penstocks, that once powered large volumes of electric energy production, sitting high and dry near the minimal intake level.
The Colorado River system is facing an unprecedented water supply crisis. The two main Colorado River reservoirs, Lake Powell, behind Glen Canyon Dam (GCD), and Lake Mead, behind Hoover Dam, have been hovering around the half-full mark for the past decade, with the power production at around the half-capacity mark.
Studies have concluded that the water-rich era on the Colorado is history, so that the lakes are unlikely to both ever fill again, and might even go dry within a decade with immense consequences, because the vast Colorado River supplies water to 40 million people and irrigation for 4.5 million acres of agricultural lands.
The water crisis is so severe, that the shutdown and demolition of the Glen Canyon dam is being debated.
While this is happening increasing flooding events occur elsewhere.
In Europe, endless rain and flooding devastated vegetable cultivation to the point that rationing began, and unseasonal soil saturation dangerously delayed sowing for new crops, which thereby becomes dangerously delayed. We see now evermore areas inundated with flooding that historically were safe from flooding.
Flash floods have been happening even amidst long extended droughts, in some cases on a near continentals scale extending from Texas all the way to Canada.
The latest major event on the train of unprecedented weather conditions was the flooding in Central California, of Lake Oroville, the second- largest reservoir in California. The lake collects the runoff from a 10,200 square kilometres catchment basin. Lake Oroville has a Mediterranean type climate with hot, dry summers and cool wet winters, located near a semi-permanent, high pressure area of the mid-Pacific Ocean. In February 2017, this entire region was suddenly flooded. The normally water-starved lake suddenly rose 20 feet in 6 days as storms kept rolling in. Nine smaller primary reservoirs feed into lake Oroville. All were filled to the brim.
As the lake filled, the spillway was taxed to the limits to prevent an overflow. In the process, the spillway began to fail. A large hole developed. As the lake level increased further, four days later the lake overflowed its 1,500 foot emergency spillway, a 30 foot high concrete wall. The over flooding eroded the ground below the wall, that prompted the evacuation of 190,000 people. Repairs were made to its base after the lake was drawn down with the damaged main spillway, enough for the overflow of the lake to stop.
But with another volley of rainfall on the way, who can predict the result. 10 inches of rain over a catchment area of 10,000 square kilometers adds up to a lot of water. The fact that the system of dams exist, has saved the entire down-stream area from immense flooding, as it has for the last 50 years, and did so again. Thanks to the emergency spillway system, that very few dams have, that had never been needed since the dam was built, the dam had remained intact in spite of the worst flooding ever, in that region. And thanks to the 9 upstream reservoirs, the water level in the lake behind the dam could be lowered by more than 50 feet so that repairs could be made to the damaged emergency spillway, in case it should be needed again.
What had caused this near catastrophic flooding event that according to historic data should not have occurred, was a mere fringe effect of the now changing global climate dynamics that invariably reflect the now fast-changing solar dynamics. This renders the flooding a fringe effect of the transition to the next Ice Age that is already in progress.
These real dynamics, however, are ignored as if they were but a dream. Instead, manmade climate change is being blamed for the increasing flooding, as an excuse..
The actual, immediate cause for the 'flooding' in Northern California had two factors standing behind it. One was evidently the immensely strong flow of the northern jet stream that is strengthened by the cooling of the Earth. The jet stream at the time of the disaster had dipped deep into the tropics, past the Hawaiian Islands, almost to the 15 degrees latitude.
The circulation system that drives the jet stream deposits cold air from the northern latitudes deep into the South and pulls moist warn air northward on a return path.
In mid February 2017 the jet stream system flowed right across the West Coast, on a broad front that extended from Canada all the way to Mexico, with Northern California being located at the center of this massive global circulation system. While the jet stream phenomenon is normal, and a massive northern jest stream occurs every winter, its extremely deep extend into the tropics is not historically common. It is an effect of the increasing cooling of the earth, whereby its southwards penetration has increased in recent years.
The jet stream itself, however, is not the main cause for the flooding. The main factor for the flooding was evidently the increasing volume of solar cosmic-ray flux that has an enormous effect on water vapor nucleation that causes clouds to form and to rain out.
The evidence that this was the main contributing factor in the California flooding event, is visible on the Sun. In the timeframe of the flooding a large weakening had occurred in the corona surrounding the Sun, termed, a coronal hole. Such weak spots on the corona typically enable larger volumes of solar cosmic ray flux to be emitted from the Sun. In this particular case, the weak area in the corona occurred near the equator of the Sun and was pointed directly towards the Earth. The equatorial alignment is critical in this case, as it brings it into line with the planetary ecliptic where the Earth orbits. This means that the coronal hole had opened up right in the direction of the Earth, so that the Earth would have received a significantly larger volume of cosmic-ray flux, flowing through the coronal hole, than it normally received.
This effect, combined with the strong on-flow of moisture from the tropics, created the conditions for the flooding.
Cosmic Ray flux has a major impact on cloud formation. Cosmic rays are not rays in the standard sense, like rays of light. Cosmic rays are single events of fast moving electrically charged particles, primarily protons and electrons. As the particles flow through the atmosphere, apart from a lot of other effects, they induce an electric charge by electromagnetic action. They ionize the atmosphere. They create a disturbance in the normal electric balance. The ionization aids cloud nucleation. It can have a dramatic effect, especially when the natural atmospheric conditions that are conducive the nucleation are also present.
That cosmic-ray ionization has an enormous influence on cloud nucleation has been experimentally demonstrated at the European CERN laboratory with the CLOUD experiment. In the experiment a large chamber of water vapor was subjected to the normal conditions that cause cloud nucleation, and the effect was measured. Then artificial cosmic rays were injected into the chamber from a particle accelerator.
At the moment when the artificial cosmic rays were added, the measured nucleation increased sharply. The measurements went strait up and off the chart. In this context, the CERN lab proved in principle that the flooding event in Northern California was greatly enhanced by the larger volume of cosmic ray flux from the Sun that flowed through the Earth-aligned coronal hole.
Larger volumes of cosmic-ray flux cause stronger cloud forming. Increased cloudiness, by the white top of the clouds, reflects more solar radiation back into space, thereby cooling the Earth. The increased cloud nucleation also causes the clouds to rain out faster, whereby their water-transport distance becomes reduced, producing drought conditions in many areas.
The more distant areas on the cloud-flow path, especially the areas far inland and behind mountains, become drought stricken thereby. Inversely, areas with a topology that favours natural rain-out, become more heavily flooded by increased cosmic-ray ionization.
Cloud nucleation is a combination of numerous factors. The prime natural factors are water vapor density and air temperature. Water molecules have a slight electric dipole characteristic, which enables them to latch onto each other. This happens more readily at lower temperatures where the molecules are less agitated.
Now, when cosmic ionization becomes an additional factor, so that atomic elements in the atmosphere become ionized - which means that they become electrically charged - the charged particles become 100 times more effective in attracting water vapor molecules that have an electric dipole quality. By this effect, a large sudden influx in cosmic rays can cause large-scale flooding. The resulting sudden change happens, because the cosmic electric interference radically alters the natural balance.
The cosmic ray effect gives the natural cloud nucleation a tremendous boost, and this boosting can take place without warning.
It is generally believed that a large inflow of clouds is required for strong rainfall to happen. While this is normally the case, it is not always required. Cosmic-ray ionization can turn a blue sky into dark clouds and cause floods within hours. This is so, because the atmosphere is naturally loaded with water.
Water vapor typically makes up 1% of the atmosphere. With the troposphere extending upwards to roughly 10,000 feet, where all the weather is created, the 1% density amounts to 100 feet of water. Thus, when one is looking at a clear sky, one looks at 100 feet of water in the air, which is typically invisible, except in cases were nucleation has taken place in the form of fog. The 1% density is a rough estimate. It varies with local conditions and elevation. But whatever the effective density may be at a specific place, there is a lot of water floating in the atmosphere. It doesn't take much of an incentive under such conditions for cosmic-ray ionization to cause 5 inches of extra rainfall, or even a foot of rain to suddenly happen out of the blue. Cosmic-ray ionization can have this kind of dramatic effect.
The question arises here, is the cosmic-ray effect increasing? Is the cosmic-ray density increasing as evidence suggests?
Was the California flooding at the Oroville watershed a freak anomaly? Or was it a part of an increasing trend?
This is an important question, because the answer is that the flooding event resulted from a trend that is fast increasing in magnitude. This means that we haven't seen anything yet.
Measurements conducted in space, in orbits around the Sun, tell us that our Sun is in a free-fall type weakening phase towards a Little Ice Age in the 2030s, and towards the next Full Ice Age thereafter, in potentially the 2050s.
The dramatic weakening of the Sun, as a long-term trend was first measured by the NASA and ESO Ulysses spacecraft, over the span of 10 years between its first and last orbit.
The spacecraft had measured a 30% diminishment of the solar wind pressure and 20% increase in cosmic-ray flux over its 10-year period of observing the Sun, ending in 2008. These are enormous figures for a 10-year timeframe, which is minuscule on the cosmic timescale. While the weakening solar wind does not affect our climate directly to a large degree, but is merely an indicator of the weakening Sun, the measured increased cosmic-ray flux, however, has en enormous effect.
The diminishing of the Sun appears to have started in 1998, according to on-the ground average temperature measurements, measured in Southern Siberia by the Solar Terrestrial Institute of Irkutsk. The measurements were progressively lower. That's the trend that we also saw reported from space.
The California drought began roughly 10 years after the Sun began to diminish.
The solar down-trend is also reflected in diminishing sunspot cycles. We are now 19 years down on the slope of the diminishing Sun. The worldwide drought conditions have increased, and flooding conditions, and colder temperatures in many parts of the world, have likewise increased, with increasing warming occurring in the polar regions.
The point is that we have seen tremendous changes even in the few years since 2010 when the great California drought began, and drought conditions around the world began to increase.
And the related point is, that all this is just the beginning of an increasingly worsening trend that will extend for 30 more years, after which it gets really bad.
It get really bad when the Full Ice Age begins, that will likely begin in the 2050s. From this point on we will operating on a completely different climate scale.
I have encircled the Ice Age start-up of the last Ice Age, and have projected it forward to our time as an illustration of what we are getting into, that we need to prepare ourselves for. Note, that the Little Ice Age is barely noticeable on the larger scale, though it had catastrophic consequences on agriculture in many areas across Europe, especially in the northern regions where up to 30% of the population perished by starvation. All of that will pale in comparison with what is to come. This is what I mean with, it's getting really bad.
We really don't know what full glaciation conditions are like. When the solar energy radiation diminishes by potentially 70%, conditions may be encountered that seem unimaginable today. Vast areas outside the tropics will likely become uninhabitable, with the cold and ice conditions reaching deep into today's temperate zone where many of the great cities are located that thereby become uninhabitable.
The 30 years trend that is now in progress towards the phase shift to the Full Ice Age, will take us deep into a Little Ice Age along the way. The little Ice Age will give us a minuscule foretaste of what is to come. But why would we wait that long? We have seen already huge effects in the current time in terms of drought, flooding, and freezing.
Farther down along the line of this trend towards the Little Ice Age stage, we will see sunspots no longer occurring, potentially after the 2020s, or sooner.
In the 2030s the solar wind will likely stop, with the Sun's surface temperature becoming colder thereafter, gradually, until a threshold is crossed past which the Primer Fields collapse that keep the Sun in its current high-powered mode. That's the trend we are on.
We will likely see a large increase in solar cosmic ray flux occurring along the way, resulting in evermore cloudiness on Earth, with expanding droughts, flooding, and deep cold-snaps in evermore places, with unpredictable catastrophic effects on agriculture and all aspects of human living, and environmental effects that are already disturbing, such as the ongoing polar warming. In other words, we haven't seen anything yet, that we need to get ready for. We will likely see the arctic warming revving up, that we already see a bit of as the result of the on-going global cooling.
The currently ongoing Arctic warming, is an effect of the Earth getting colder. This is not a paradox. It is caused by the global air circulation system that the jet streams are a part of, which are driven in part by the global circulation system. The circulation system draws warm air from the subtropical jets at roughly the 30 degree latitude, and transports it northward through the Ferrel Cell, into the Polar Cell.
The jet-stream system is a global air-circulation system that is affected by the spinning of the Earth and its curvature, which by its effects creates three distinct air-circulation cells.
The cells are also effected by the prevailing temperature differences.
Cold, 'heavy' air-masses in the high latitude regions are forced towards the tropics by the centrifugal force of the spinning of the Earth. The recirculation pulls warm air masses back into the polar regions.
The resulting typical circulation system in the North has been termed the Polar Mobile Anti-Cyclone. This means that the colder the Earth gets, the stronger the recirculation becomes, and the larger the volume of warm air becomes that is drawn into the polar regions.
The process isn't dangerous. It typically affects mostly the low-lying areas, such as ice shelves and the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
The thinning polar ice is an effect of the cooling of the Earth, and is nothing to be alarmed about, except for the point that it reflects the currently ongoing weakening of the Sun towards the big Full Ice Age Ahead.
At the current stage, the cooling of the Earth is not caused by a colder Sun, but is caused by a weaker Sun that produces increased solar cosmic-ray flux, which increases cloudiness. As I said before, the white top surface of clouds reflect a portion of the in-flowing solar energy back into space, which thereby becomes lost to us and makes the Earth colder. The stronger the cloudiness becomes, the colder the Earth gets. That's the process that gave us the Little Ice Age in the 1600s under a weaker Sun.
The Little Ice Age corresponds with extremely high volumes of solar cosmic-ray flux, which are typical for a weaker Sun. The Sun was so weak during the Little Ice Age that for a 30-years period no sunspots had occurred, and the cosmic-ray flux was enormously large. The historic cosmic-ray flux volume can be measured in Carbon-14 ratios that stand as a proxy for the cosmic-ray volumes, since Carbon-14 is exclusively produced by the interaction of cosmic-rays impacting with the atmosphere, whereby a small portion of the atmospheric Nitrogen is transformed into Carbon-14. By this process, the historic cosmic-ray flux can be measured, and with it also the solar activity can be measured.
These measurements tell us that the Sun recovered for 300 years after the Little Ice Age, which is evident in diminishing Carbon-14 measurements. The recovered Sun, that would have given us less cloudiness and 300 years of global warming, continued to grow stronger until roughly 1998. After 1998, the Sun began to weaken again.
The Sun is presently in a free-fall type collapse mode towards the next Ice Age starting in the 2050s, potentially. The entire recovery of the Sun, spanning 300 years, that got us out of the Little Ice Age in the 1600s, is now rapidly reversing. Half of it has already been lost in the last 15 years. The rest will be gone in the early 2030s. The free-fall takes down in 30 years, what the recovery had built up over 300 years.
The California drought, and the more recent flooding in North-Central California are all fringe effects of the now ongoing collapse in the solar system. The cooling of the earth has already increased to the point that we see snowfall happening again in the Northern Sahara Desert.
The point is that the fringe effects are getting worse, and will increase for the next 30 years, so that preparations need to be made for their occurrences. In many cases the preparations will be of the same types that are required in preparation for the Ice Age Start-up in the 2050s.
It will become increasingly necessary in the coming years to shift critical elements of agriculture into indoor facilities; and this not because we are already seeing Ice Age effects. We are still in the interglacial warm holiday period, but the fringe effects that hint towards what is to come, should cause us to become concerned,and the sooner we start, the less will be the catastrophic losses from not reacting to the changing world.
In preparation for the Full Ice Age starting in the 2050s, most agriculture should be operating in indoor facilities by then, with most of them placed afloat onto the equatorial seas between the hurricane bands for the lack of available land in the tropics, together with floating cities to service the floating agricultures. We will likely need to build 6,000 new cities for a million people each, to enable the relocation of the populations out of the regions that become uninhabitable during glaciation conditions under a potentially 70% weaker Sun. That's the option we have, with which to assure our future.
I am certain that we will realize this option, as impossible as this may seem today. We will do all this, because it easy to do, and fun to do. We have all the needed materials on hand, sitting unused on the ground, and likewise the energy resources. We also have the technology developed to build the necessary infrastructures. But will we do it? Yes, we do it, because we are human beings. Building great projects is the human thing to do.
Humanity is a creator at heart, a builder, producer, adventurer into realms untrot. We are not couch potatoes at heart. We are are pioneers at heart. We stand before a threshold today into the world that we can yet barely imagine. In other words, we haven't seen anything yet in terms of what can be accomplished. Infinity is our limit. Building floating cities for free, are but small things on the new scale. And this is why I must stop at this point, looking forward, because we haven't experienced anything yet of what the full potentials are of an infinite species, that we, humanity, have developed ourselves to become. In this context we have a need to acknowledge to ourselves what we have already accomplished on this path, because much has been accomplished.