The Kepler Effect on the Ice Age theory


Reality of Delusion? 

Rolf A. F. Witzsche

obliquity - 41,000 yrs

precession - 25.800 yrs

eccentricity -100,000 yrs


The recurring ice ages are real
The theory however is failing

Almost since it became recognized that repeated ice ages have occurred over the last two million years, the main theory of their cause was built around observed long term cycles of variations of the Earth's orbit around the Sun. These cycles are real.

Eccentricity: The Earth's orbit is not circular, but slightly elliptic - nor is the Sun exactly at the center, the Earth's orbit is slightly offset. The figure above is exaggerated - a 0.5 offset. The real offset varies between 0.005 and 0.058 (presently 0.017 or 32% into the cycle) over periods of 413,000 years, 95,000 and 125,000 years, which loosely combine into a 100,000-year cycle. The variance is expressed in changes of the length and the intensity of the seasons, while the overall heat received from the Sun remains the same. 

Obliquity: It is a well known fact that the spin-axis of the Earth is offset, or tilted, from its geographic axis. The offset varies between a tilt of 22.1 and 24.5 and back again, for a 2.4 degree change over a 41,000 year cycle. The present tilt is 23.44 degrees (or 55% into the cycle and decreasing). It is expressed in hemispheric differences (between north and south) in solar radiation received (cooler summers in one hemisphere and cooler winters in another), while the total heat received from the Sun, obviously remains the same.

Precession: Is the change in the alignment of the spin axis relative to the fixed stars over a 25,800-year cycle. It is expressed in changes in the extremity of the seasons, though again to total heat the Earth receives from the Sun remains the same.

The mathematician Milutin Milankovitch combined the three cycles as a basis for explaining the recurring ice ages based on changes in solar isolation in the different hemispheres. However, the computed results don't mach the observed evidence. There exist 7 major problems of disagreement between the two. For one, the 100,000 year cycle should have the least effect, but is instead the dominant cycle. Also at times the observed effect precedes the computed cause. No can the Milankovitch cycles explain the puzzling change about a million years ago from the observed 41,000-year ice age cycles to the 100,000 years cycles. 

see: (re. all of the above)

However, the most puzzling aspect of the theory is that neither of the three cycles alters the total amount of of solar radiation that is received by the Earth from the Sun. The orbital cycles merely effect seasonal and hemispheric distribution, but not the total energy flux. In proportion as one hemisphere gets colder, the other hemisphere gets hotter. The combined effect cannot explain the deep, deep cooling during the last Ice Age for example, for which it is known that so much snow had accumulated in total, that the surface level of the oceans had dropped by nearly 200 feet. Hemispheric differences cannot have this kind of an effect.

The Johannes Kepler effect

All astronomers from Ptolemy to Copernicus faced the same kind of problem in that the observed evidence of the orbits of the planets didn't agree with the prevailing theory. The theory was based on the assumption that the orbits of the planets must be on the line of perfect circles, since circles are geometrically perfect form, and the heaven are naturally perfect, being higher than the Earth. And so, in order to work within the theory, the astronomers invented fudge factors to overcome the pesky disagreement between the theory and reality. They invented epicycles. They had the planets riding on imaginary cycles that were themselves riding on larger circles. Astronomy was stuck with this, and a few minor variations of it, for almost 19 centuries, until Kepler discovered that the orbits of the planets were not determined by circles, but by the effects of universal gravity, by which the orbital paths became naturally elliptical. Until Kepler had made his discovery, astronomy had tried to explain the celestial effects without being aware of their cause, and so they failed. After Kepler all the epicycles and fudge factors were left behind and astronomy began to look at the real thing.

We are in the same situation again when trying to explain the observed ice age cycles with the computed Milankovitch cycles, which don't match. And the reason again is the same, for the disagreement between the evidence and the computed effect. In this case too attempts are made to explain effects for which the cause is not recognized. In pre-Kepler time, astronomers tried to explain the planetary system without the one force that is expressed by it, the force of gravity. In modern time we do the same by trying to explain the ice ages in terms energy-flux computations, without considering the one force that supplies all energy in the Universe, which is the electric force. The Milankovitch-cycle theory assumes that the only affecting factors on the Earth's climate are the orbital changes that modify the exposure of the various parts of the Earth to the Sun. Everything else is deemed to be constant. In reality this is far from the case.

The electric effect

It is known, supported by much evidence, that the Universe, including every galaxy, and every sun, is electrically powered, so that electric power is the only primary source of power in the Universe. The nuclear-fusion powered Sun is a myth. (see: absolute power - solar power) It is a misperception. The myth is needed as a kind of epicycle-type fudge factor in order to make the big bang theory of the universe explainable to some degree, which in turn supports a large class of related theories that ride on similar fudge factors.

See: The Electric Universe - classes of perception

When one considers the plasma electric currents that pervade the Universe, as the power source for the Universe, and therefore for the solar system, one recognizes a vast array of factors that can cause cyclical variations in the power flux density affecting the solar system. One can also recognize that some of the orbital cycles are evidently the result of changing electro-magnetic conditions, considering that the electro-magnetic force of the Universe is 39 orders of magnitude stronger that the force of gravity.

The bottom line

The bottom line is that the Milankovitch-cycle theory is as useless for determining the start of the next Ice Age, as Ptolemy's perception would be for plotting a course to mars. Historic-based predictions are evidently far more to the point since the Universe isn't likely to stop following its self-established pattern. And this tells us that we may be in a transition period already, and that we should become intensely concerned about protecting our agriculture from the impending cold ice age climate.

see: Climate history of the last 420,000 years

Still, the bottom line might yet be changed. It is is known that the climate on Earth is affected to a large degree by changes in the ionization of water vapor in the troposphere, which affects cloud formation and a dramatic reduction of greenhouse effect - even to the point of causing ice ages - it might yet be possible to artificially control the ionization by utilizing the electric potential in the ionosphere to power our economies with, thereby reducing the electric field that plays a role in the ionization process.

All of this means that we have the future in our hands by looking at what is actually real (instead of what is merely held as consensus by mediocrity), and then utilize the principles that come to light through discovery. And this I am certain will happen. It appears that when Kepler had made his discovery of universal gravity (see: New Astronomy or Nova Astronomia), few people had an open mind for it. We can gleam this from what he said about one of his revolutionary books:  

"Now, eighteen months after the first light, three months after the true day, but a very few days after the pure Sun of that most wonderful study began to shine, nothing restrains me; it is my pleasure to taunt mortal men with the candid acknowledgment that I am stealing the golden vessels of the Egyptians to build a tabernacle to my God from them, far, far away from the boundaries of Egypt. If you forgive me, I shall rejoice; if you are enraged with me, I shall bear it. See, I cast the die, and I write the book. Whether it is to be read by the people of the present or of the future makes no difference: let it await its reader for a hundred years, if God Himself has stood ready for six thousand years for one to study Him."

Johannes Kepler, Book V, Harmony of the World

However, times have changed. We may not have the luxury to delay our response to truth by a hundred years. The approaching next Ice Age may overcome us if we tarry too long.



Published by Cygni Communications Ltd. North Vancouver, BC, Canada -  2010  Rolf A. F. Witzsche

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