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We are coming to the end of the current, warm, interglacial climate that began roughly 12,600 years ago. The startup of this interglacial period had occurred long before the development of the major civilizations had occurred with all their inventions, cultures, and achievements.
This amazing period of warm climate on Earth gave us the only type of climate that we have ever experienced. This is what is coming to an end, and the end is coming up fast. It is as near, as the 2050s.
With this said, the question must be asked, do we have any evidence that the end is near, and that it will happen in the 2050s timeframe?
Actually, we didn't have much evidence of any of this until quite recently, until the space age began with its advanced technologies that eventually enabled us to look at the Sun from the vantage point of space.
The accumulation of some of the astonishing evidence that we now have, began with the NASA / ESA space mission named Ulysses. Among other objectives, Ulysses had measured the solar-wind pressure from its wide polar orbits.
Beginning with its conception in the 1970s, to its termination in 2008 after more than 30 years running, Ulysses became one of the most successful international efforts to explore the dynamics of the Sun.
One of Ulysses' vital discoveries is that the velocity of the solar wind is nearly constant, flowing from the Sun at 800 KM/sec outside the ecliptic where it is not impeded by the heliospheric current sheet.
Another vital discovery that Ulysses brought home, is that the solar-wind 'pressure', a composite of density and temperature, had rapidly collapsed during the time of the mission. It had collapsed a whopping 30% during the last decade of the mission. This physically measured, amazingly fast collapse of the solar-wind pressure, stands as extraordinary evidence of the Sun becoming weaker. The fast rate of collapse points to a major phase shift coming up in the near term.
If one projects the 30%-per-decade rate of collapse forward in time, the zero-point in solar wind-pressure, and probably the solar wind itself, will likely be reached in the early 2030s. This assessment is significant, because, as the plasma stream that is focused onto the Sun, continues at the originally measured rate of diminishment, the surface temperature of the Sun will begin to go colder after the solar wind stops.
While the solar wind itself is not a significant factor for the climate on Earth, it is a highly important indicator of the 'health' of the solar dynamics.
The solar wind flows when the plasma inflow into the Primer Fields on the surface of the Sun, produces a greater pressure under the magnetic confinement structure than the confinement structure can contain. In this case the pressure is vented at the top of the confinement structure, where the magnetic structure is at its weakest.
The presence of the solar wind that flows away from the Sun, tells us that more plasma flows onto the Sun than the Sun needs for its functioning, with the excess being drained away by the solar wind. For this reason the solar surface temperature remains essentially steady while the supply system that drives the process is diminishing. In other words, the solar-wind pressure is a measure for the existing over-pressure in the supply system.
The diminishing solar-wind pressure that Ulysses had measured, indicates that the dynamics of the entire solar system are getting weaker. This means that the plasma shell that surrounds the Sun is diminishing too. The result of this is that the solar cosmic-ray flux is increasing, which the plasma shell attenuates, but attenuates less as the shell diminishes.
The increasing solar cosmic-ray flux that flows from the weakening Sun is the big factor that affects the climate on Earth. It affects us in numerous ways.
The increasing cosmic-ray flux, which ionizes our atmosphere evermore, results in increased global cloudiness. This is so, because ionization enhances the normal cloud forming process, in some cases up to 100-fold.
The resulting increased cloudiness, of course, reflects evermore sunlight back into space, which results in the now experienced increasing global cooling. The solar wind has nothing to do with that.
The increasing cloudiness and increased rainout of the clouds, of course, diminishes the water-vapor density in the atmosphere. This is significant, because water vapor generates over 90% of the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere. When this effect diminishes, the moderating effect of the greenhouse diminishes with it. As the result, the climate becomes increasingly erratic with larger temperature differentials between hot and cold climate anomalies.
The diminishing solar-wind pressure itself, is only significant as an indicator of how far we have progressed on the front of global cooling, and how much more cooling is yet to come until we reach the point when the Sun begins to dim, which adds further to the cooling.
The progressive cooling, accompanied by the reduced moderating greenhouse effect, is presently the major factor on the climate scene today. It is that, because it affects agriculture in a big way.
For example, when major winter blizzards strike in April and delay planting, like blizzard Xanto did in 2018, large crop losses might occur in the near future when the autumn snows arrive early.
Another example of climate caused crop losses, is Australia's 50% loss in wheat production in just two executive years. It has turned one of the world's major wheat exporters into a net-importer. This resulted from climate consequences that we will see evermore of in the near future, and in evermore places.
That's what Ulysses had measured. It should have been regarded as a warning.
The diminishing solar-wind pressure that Ulysses had measured, serves us as an indicator of how far the process of solar diminishment has progressed over the time of the mission, which will continue year after year, with consequences not yet imagined.
Ulysses has also measured the corresponding increase in solar cosmic-ray flux that does affect our climate in a big way. The diminishing over-pressure that Ulysses had measured in the solar wind, also corresponds with diminished shielding against solar cosmic-ray flux. This is the effect caused by a weaker Sun system.
For as long as the solar wind flows, which represents overpressure in the system, the solar surface temperature won't be effected significantly, even while the Earth is hugely affected by the diminishing of the Sun by way of cosmic-ray effects. The Earth is getting colder by cosmic-ray consequences while the solar surface temperature remains essentially steady.
This seems like a paradox; the Sun remaining steady in radiated energy, while the Earth is getting colder. But it isn't a paradox. The key lies in the nature of the solar wind venting overpressure from the system that powers the Sun, which keeps the effective pressure regulated at a steady level.
Only when the over-pressure stops, and the solar wind no longer flows, will the solar surface temperature begin to diminish and add to the cooling of the Earth.
When we get to this point the first phase of the solar collapse process comes to an end, and the second phase begins. For how long this second phase, the phase of the dimming Sun, will continue, cannot be determined by any form of measurement that is presently available.
The Sun may go dimmer and dimmer for 20 years or 30 years, or it may all end sooner. The projected end in the 2050s is a kind of mid-point projection, with very little certainty standing behind it. The only aspect that is certain about the end of Phase 2, is that it will end at some point.
We have no reason to believe that the interstellar plasma stream that nourishes our Sun will not continue to diminish as it has done for 3,000 years already, and has diminished evermore rapidly towards the potential end-point in our time.
At some point during Phase 2 the plasma density, and rate of flow of the interstellar plasma stream, will no longer be sufficient for the Primer Fields to be maintained. The Primer Fields will then vanish as if they had never existed. That's when Phase 3 begins; the Ice Age Phase.
Without the Primer Fields focusing concentrated plasma onto the Sun, the high-power state of the Sun terminates. The termination will happen potentially in the 2050s.
While the Sun will continue to operate when this happens, it will operate in a less-dense plasma environment, because the interstellar plasma stream then flows loosely around the Sun, instead of being focused onto it. In this case the Sun will operate in a weak state, in a kind of default state, or hibernation state, with 70% less energy being radiated by it. This will continue until the Primer fields form anew, potentially 90,000 years in the future.
The hibernation period for the Sun becomes the Ice Age period on Earth.
Whether the final phase shift happens in the 2050s, or happens sooner, or happens later, is ironically insignificant. It is insignificant when nobody remains alive at this stage to witness the event. This would be the case if the technological infrastructures had not been built, which are needed to support human existence in an Ice Age world, and which are already needed in the boundary zone leading up to it, where agriculture is at the beginning stage of collapsing. And this brings us to the present timeframe.
While the 2050s timeframe for the Ice Age phase shift is uncertain, it is most certain, in contrast, that very few people of humanity will still exist at the time of the Ice Age phase shift, if the Ice Age infrastructures are not being build in the near term.
Inversely, if the needed infrastructures were to be build in the near term, long before the end of Phase 1 where these infrastructures will be critically needed already, then humanity would have given itself a chance to live securely without a care, so that it wouldn't matter then whether the phase shift to the Next Ice Age would happen in the 2040s, the 2050s, or the 2060s. The big event, whenever it would happen, would then be noted as merely another astrophysical curiosity.
This means that the critical time for us all is the present, not 30 years from now when the Ice Age begins. The critical time to start building is now, before the collapse of agriculture disables our food supply. Our actions in the present will determine whether we will have a future, or whether we might vanish by default.