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Wake up! The Ice Age is Coming! The Ice Age is coming! Get the fur coats out of the closet.
That's the message that the world renowned atmospheric scientist, the Polish Professor Zbigniew Jaworowski, chairman of the Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw, presented to the world in his 2003 paper with the title "The Ice Age is Coming".
He warned that the transition to the next glaciation period is 500 years overdue, and can start quickly without warning, and might be as short as 1 to 2 years.
He couldn't say more, because the forces that are driving the Ice Age dynamics had not been discovered at his time in 2003. The scientific foundation for making the discoveries hadn't been established.
And even now, the discoveries that were made are largely ignored. The world is living in the dark in this respect.
The prevailing theories at the time, of what causes the Ice Ages, were so far off the mark that Jaworowski didn't even bother to refer to them in his paper on the Ice Age .
Until the early 2000s, when space exploration opened a new window to the universe, the prevailing Ice Age theories had been guesswork.
The most prominent of these was the orbital cycles theory that had been developed in the 1920s, nearly 100 years ago.
The mathematician Milutin Milankovitch, had theorized at the time, for the lack of real data, or for other constraints, that Ice Ages might be caused by the combined effect of variations in the eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's orbit around the Sun, which he theorized would result in cyclical variation of solar radiation affecting the Earth.
While he failed to realize - that the total energy that is received on the Earth is always the same, regardless of the orientation of the Earth's spin-axis, which affects only hemispheric distribution; and he also ignored what Johannes Kepler had already stated in the 1600s, that the changing eccentricity of the Earth orbit abound the Sun, doesn't affect the total solar energy received in any way, but affects only the seasonal distribution - Milankovitch's theory was hailed nevertheless, and became the mainstream theory.
The fact is, that astrophysical science has been latching onto straws for a very long time, in attempts to rationalize the occurrence of Ice Ages as mechanistic phenomena, which they are not, because mechanistic Ice Ages are not physically possible.
Now, 100 years later, thanks to modern technology, we have physically measured evidence on hand that proves conclusively that Ice Ages are caused by the Sun directly and exclusively. No guesswork enters the scene. Orbital cycles, ocean current fluctuations, and CO2, none play a role. Ice Ages are caused by the Sun. The evidence is hard and conclusive, though it is typically ignored in the science communities.
The evidence that is laid up in ice, exists in the form of changing production rates of the isotope Berillium-10, that is generated on the Earth by the Sun. The Beryllium-10 production rate can be measured. It varies in lockstep with solar activity. This means that historic Beryllium-10 ratios can be measured as a proxy for historic solar activity.
The consistently high Beryllium production rate throughout the previous glacial period, but not before or after, proves that the previous glacial period - termed the Ice Age - was not caused by orbital mechanistic, but was caused by the Sun directly, so that we can say with scientific certainty that the Sun causes the Ice Ages, and nothing else does.
See: (The Grand Solar Minimum becomes the Ice Age) ../ice_age/Sun,%20Fire,%20Ice.html
While working in the dark, without a clue of what is actually happening, by ignoring the measured physical evidence, some scientists still predict that the next Ice Age won't start for another 50,000 years. Some even say that manmade global warming will overpower the Ice Age dynamics, as if we had the power to affect the Sun.
With these types of denials of reality, the scientific community has put itself to sleep, and humanity with it, almost universally. And more than that, the scientific ignorance endangers the whole of humanity, as it thereby prevents society from building itself the technological infrastructures that are needed for continued human existence during the Ice Planet phase of the Earth.
Facing the Ice Age Consequences
A story is told, that back in the 1800s, a traveller in the Alps had noted giant boulders in a valley. The boulders seemed oddly out of place. The traveller was puzzled by how they got there. When he questioned nearby villagers, he was told to look at the distant glacier high in the mountains. They told him that the glaciers had once extended down into the valley during the cold times, and had left the boulders behind when they melted."
With this 'discovery' an interest was roused in large-scale of glaciation phenomena that can have such amazing effects.
The glaciation period that the villagers spoke of, had evidently been that of the Little Ice Age of the 1600s. We know today that the Little Ice Age had been a period of extremely weak solar activity. We also know that the climate had been so cold in those days, that rivers became skating rinks, and agriculture diminished so extensively that between 10% to 30% of the population in Europe had perished by starvation, depending on location.
This harsh period of cold, which had spanned more than a century, had nevertheless been but a fringe effect on the path to the big Ice Age, the deep glaciation period that typically spans 90,000 years. No one in the 1600s could have imagined what a full Ice Age has in store for humanity, which would have paled the harshness at the time into insignificance.
We know a little more today along this line. By analyzing the content of the ice of the giant ice sheet of Greenland, it became scientifically possible to measure the past in retrospect, and to reach far back in time..
It became apparent in ice core records that the cooling of the Earth, during the last glaciation period, had been 40 times more extensive than the Little Ice Age cooling had been, which had extended high mountain glaciers into a Swiss valley. It also became apparent in the ice core records that the precipitation on Earth had been 80% less during glaciation time, than it is today.
What you see here are real physical measurements, carefully plotted, meticulously produced. The numbers are big.
70% weaker Sun
It is almost impossible to imagine what those big numbers are telling us. Who can fathom, for example, the consequences of a 70% weaker Sun? For starters, the liveable zone shrinks to the latitudes of the tropics.
80% less precipitation
And the 80% loss of precipitation means that nearly the entire zone that remains liveable on our planet, becomes a desert.
That's the type of situation that we will face from the 2050s onward. That is what we need to get ready for. The liveable zone is the zone that can be made liveable with large-scale technological infrastructures, which can be built extensive enough to accommodate 7 billion people. This means that we need to build us a completely new world in which the Ice Age cannot affect us, and that we get this completed in the 30 years that we have remaining of the interglacial climate.
It can be stated with a fairly high degree of certainty, based on events, measurements, and numerous forms of evidence, that the phase shift to the next period of full glaciation is potentially as near as the 2050s, if not closer, perhaps even as close as 30 years from now,
The crucial factor, of course, is the timing. The time-frame for the phase-shift to be happening in the 2050s wasn't pulled out of a hat. It is the composite result of numerous events and measurements that all point to the 2050s in their own unique way.
For example, as measured in space, the solar-wind pressure began to diminish from the year 2000 on, or slightly sooner, at a rate of 30% per decade, and likewise the solar magnetic field, while the solar cosmic-ray flux was increasing.
If one projects the measurements forward, the solar wind will stop in the 2030s, and the Sun's temperature will diminish thereafter till the Ice Age phase shift happens, with which the interglacial ends.
The Ice Age phase shift is the result of a threshold condition on the weakening slope of the solar system, beyond which begins a new cold world, a world of an Ice Planet Earth with a hibernating Sun. The phase shift causes a climate collapse as it did 120,000 years ago, when the previous Ice Age began,
Our Interglacial Period of the high-powered Sun
The phase-shift away from the current interglacial period is determined by the turn-off level for the high-powered Sun. The turn-off occurs at a lower level than the turn-on. Greater plasma density is required to form the magnetic fields that focus dense plasma unto our Sun, than is needed to maintain them. The 'delayed' turnoff puts the turn-off point onto a steeper slope where the weakening of the Sun happens evermore rapidly before the turn-off.
We can tell that we get near the turn-off phase shift when the fringe effects increase dramatically.
The Fringe Effects of the Weakening Sun began 5000 years ago, when the interglacial climate began to weaken.
Then, 3000 years ago, the Climate Warming pulses and their intervals, started to diminish likewise.
After that 1000 years ago, the Climate Minimum events became weaker likewise, and their intervals shorter.
More recently, after the years 2000, or slightly before, the solar-wind pressure began to weaken at the amazing fast rate of 30% per decade, and so did the Sun's underlying magnetic field, as measured by the Ulysses spacecraft. In the same timeframe, till the end of the Ulysses Mission in 2008, a Cosmic-Ray flux increase of 20% was measured.
Also, in the same timeframe, the Solar Cycle heart-beat began to slow down, from 11 years per cycle to 13 years per cycle. And more recently, in 2013, the Sun's North polar magnetic field failed to materialize in the process of polarity reversal.
These are big fringe effects that are happening. They are not fantasies. They are measured events that have occurred. And we see more and more of them.
We have measured the solar activity diminishing for 800 years towards the 1700s, measured in Carbon-14 isotope ratios. And for the timeframe thereafter we have measured an up-ramping in solar activity for almost 300 years, with which the Sun gave us the famous years of global warming as a solar event.
We also see evidence that the up-ramping of the Sun from 1715 onward, was caused by the cyclical occurrence of the big historic warming spikes, which have been getting progressively smaller for 3000 years already, and as I said, with shorter intervals between them.
It became measurable, too, in the 1990s, that we are over the hump of the global warming uplift in solar activity, that got us out of the Little Ice Age. We are now on the down slope of the pulse that rescued us. We are nearly half-way down the slope, and we have measured the solar activity dropping off like a falling stone.
With the solar-wind pressure diminishing at 30% per decade from 1998 on, we find us already half-way along the path to the zero point, with the fringe effects increasing accordingly.
As I said before, past the zero point in solar-wind pressure, from the 2030s onward, any further weakening of the solar system will be expressed in the Sun's surface temperature diminishing towards the inevitable phase-shift at which the magnetic fields collapse that focus plasma onto the Sun.
When this happens, the Sun falls back to its hibernation mode, a kind of default mode, a low-activity mode that produces 70% less radiated energy.
The phase shift is inevitable. It has happened before, by the cosmic principles involved, and will happen again. Only the exact year is somewhat uncertain.
The timing is determined by the threshold level at which the magnetic fields collapse, which presently focus high-density plasma onto the Sun. The threshold line determines the turn-on timing, and the turn-off timing, for the high-power period of the Sun, its high-activity period, which generates the interglacial climate on Earth.
The rapid weakening that we see now evident in so many ways in the solar system, as diminishing solar wind, diminishing sunspot numbers, slowing solar cycles, and fading magnetic fields, and so on, indicates that we are quite close to the turn-off point.
These things are happening now, not a thousand years from now. Global cooling, floods, storms, droughts, are all increasing at a rapid rate and will continue to increase for 30 more years with evermore crop failures along the way, until the phase shift happens and the Earth becomes uninhabitable without massive technological infrastructures, such as floating indoor agriculture with artificial environments, that have the power to supply the human need for 7 billion people, effectively, on an otherwise uninhabitable planet.
When the Earth becomes uninhabitable in the 2050s, and the zone for the New World to be built shrinks to the band of the tropics - when the territories of Canada, Europe, Russia, the USA, China, and parts of India, become unsuitable for human living, and the remaining areas becomes disabled by drought, - the pages of history take on a new color, new pages become written as the physical foundation for our existence shifts almost entirely from living off the land, to living by technologically created resources, with much of those located on the sea.
A crisis in history unfolds at the present stage, because the artificial resources for continued human living need yet to be developed, which is totally ignored. And the infrastructures need to be fully operational when the phase shift happens. We are at an existential crisis, because the development of these existentially-critical resources is not even considered anywhere in the world, much less is it being implemented.
The building of the infrastructures for the required new resources should have already started. It needs to start now. It needs to be implemented faster than the interglacial system is diminishing. But nothing is being done. The creative and productive giant that humanity inherently is, that it has the potential to be, is asleep. Even its children are asleep.
Our world is comparable to a city located downstream from a great dam that is in the process of breaking up. Deep fissures appeared. The fissures are getting larger. Fountains of water are spewing from the bigger ones. A concerned person stands in the hustings, suggesting to everyone that they band together and build a new city on higher ground where the breaking of the dam would not affect them.
In our modern world, many would come to hear the warning, but no one would be interested enough to put the spate into the ground to start building. In the story, some said that they didn't have the time, they had a business to run, a wedding to prepare, a farm to tend to, and a bakery, a butchery, and an automobile repair shop to operate. Most refused to even acknowledge that the dam is breaking up, and those who are able to see the obvious, said that the breaking of the dam isn't their concern, and refused to get involved.
"But you are involved" argued the man back from the hustings. "No one is not involved. One is either involved in saving the people of the city by relocating it, or one is involved in assuring the death of everyone in the city with the breaking of the dam, which is the result of doing nothing. None-involvement is simply not possible in this case."
The outcome of the story remains yet to unfold. It is our story. It is the story of the current world. The Ice Age is close to be breaking upon us. The evidence is already being felt with evermore severe fringe effects in the form of floods, droughts, tornadoes, hurricanes, freezing cold, even earthquakes.
Some call the effects, the effects of global warming. Others say that the effects are temporary effects of a Mini Ice Age or a Grand Solar Minimum that will come and pass by, as it did in the 1600s.
No one wants the hear the word "Ice Age" being spoken, seriously. Society loves its dreaming, as it is told that the real Ice Age won't be happening yet for thousands of years. Consequently nothing gets started to stay on track with the universe, nothing gets done that is vital for our continued existence. There is not enough love left in society for its humanity to bridge the many gaps of denials.
Humanity is riding the 'Merry Go Round' of trivial pursuits, while its future slips out of its reach.
Against this background, of the now fast unfolding existential crisis in civilization that humanity has become indifferent to, I have made a number of extensive efforts to explore the science of the Ice Age dynamics, and have presented the results in the form of my numerous science-video productions.
The video presented here, is designed as an overview, but one that is extensively indexed in the transcript pages to the previously produced videos that explore the numerous aspects of the Ice Age dynamics.
I have chosen the metaphor of the carousel to hint that in the Ice Age explorations new vistas come into view, as the carousel rotates.
I also need to add that I do not present my videos as Ice Age scare stories. I aim to uplift the Ice Age Challenge to the level of a bugle call to us, by the universe, to rouse us to build us a new world with technological infrastructures that the glaciation consequences cannot affect. This, we can most certainly do, and thereby end up with a richer, more-secure, and with a more beautiful civilization than we presently have, with greater happiness and satisfaction in living, and one that assures us a future.
What do we know about the Ice Age dynamics?
We know far too little. But what we know is amazing. It is powerfully relevant. It is hugely significant.
Most people are fast asleep today in the face of the greatest danger to their existence, just as the people in the 1600s were unaware of the scope of the cosmic dynamics when the Little Ice Age erupted that had affected their agriculture and caused wide-spread starvation.
No one had any idea then, of the great danger that the whole of humanity was in at the time, and how close the Earth had been to the phase shift to the full Ice Age that no one was prepared for, and no one would have survived.
It wasn't until into the 2000s that ice core data from Greenland revealed that the Earth had been essentially uninhabitable during the last glaciation period.
In the ice core record, the Little Ice Age shows up as a half a degree of global cooling below the 2000 average, while the full Ice Age is recorded as having been 20 degrees colder. This adds up to a 40-times deeper cooling in comparison. And more than this, the precipitation is recorded in the ice core samples as having been 80% less in glacial times, than it is today. No one could have imagined this in the 1600s, much less had been prepared for it.
All the lands outside the tropics, outside the pink zone, are lands that become reclaimed by the resulting immense cold under glaciation conditions. Agriculture is impossible there, and without it, human living is impossible even before the snow piles up into deep sheets.
And the lands within the tropics that remain ice free under a colder and dimmer Sun, become total deserts, with precipitation diminishing by more than 80%. Without rain, the entire freshwater infrastructure stops. Agriculture as we know it, even in the tropics stops, for the lack of freshwater.
As I said before, fortunately for us all, the Sun was ramped up again in 1715, in a big way, whereby the underlying weakening to ever-lower levels of solar activity, and the consequent full Ice Age phase shift, was prevented. The up-ramping of the Sun in 1715 gave us the nearly 300 years of global warming that politics, and even some scientists, blame humanity for, and wreck its economies to prevent it, even while this life-saving global warming was clearly caused by increased solar activity. Carbon-14 ratios stand as measurable proxies for historic solar activity, which prove that the global warming after the Little Ice Age had been caused by the Sun.
Regardless of the politics involved, the wonderful global warming that had lasted all the way into the 1990s had been measurably a solar event that humanity doesn't have the power to affect in any way. The cause for the solar event is built into the dynamics of the solar system as a whole.
As I also said before, the cause for the up-lifting of the Sun, that had stopped the little Ice Age and gave us global warming instead, was the dynamic continuation of the three big historic climate warming pulses. As these pulses have been getting progressively smaller in amplitude, the intervals between them have been getting progressively shorter. The intervals had diminished from 1300 years, to 1100 years, and then to 800 years. It was the last event in the series that saved the world in 1715. Without it, none of us would likely exist. No one can live without food. When glaciation begins, agriculture as we know it ceases to be possible. This means that food production stops globally under glaciation conditions.
The world population that came out of the last Ice Age, the few who survived in isolated pockets, probably lived of fish. This is possible for minuscule populations, and is evidently precarious. Ice Ages in the past have been so harsh that humanity nearly became extinct during the second-last Ice Age.
Evidently, humanity didn't fare much better during the last Ice Age that had yielded a mere 1 to 10 million people worldwide. Now, we are 7 billion people. We have the same harsh glaciation knocking at our door, potentially in the 2050s, that humanity had barely survived in extremely small numbers. Obviously, we want to do much better than that.
All that we have become - the entire development of civilization - occurred in the current interglacial period, the current period between the glacial periods. Never before in history has humanity had a 7,000 million world population, which it cannot allow to dwindle back to the 1 million level.