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** Climate Change: A Science Paradox
That solar cosmic-ray flux is totally real, and is a much-more powerful factor than is generally recognized, is made evident by a series of laboratory experiments conducted by a Russian scientist (Simon Shnoll). He made series of specific experiments that measured biological, chemical, and isotope decay reaction-rates repeatedly, numerous times, all in the same manner. Surprisingly, he measured different results each time.
In a book review of his work (Cosmophysical Factors in Stochastic Processes) on the experiments, the reviewer pointed out that when the identical experiments were conducted sequentially the results were different each time, but when several were conducted simultaneously, the results were identical in each case. Then, when the parallel experiments were repeated in the same manner, the results were different every time, but were synchronously identical. It was eventually recognized that the results of certain sequential elements spiked dramatically in 24 hour intervals.
The most-likely cause for the spiking of the experimental results in 24 hour intervals would be the effect of solar cosmic-ray interaction with the experiments. Solar cosmic-ray flux spikes at any location on Earth in 24 hour intervals as the Earth rotates towards the Sun and then away from it in it 24 hour rotation. Galactic cosmic-rays do not have this precisely-shaped directionality. Galactic cosmic-rays come to Earth from random directions regardless of the time of day.
Now, what has this got to do with sunspots on the Sun?
It has been recognized that when we see lots of sunspots on the Sun, the climate is typically warmer, and when none occur the Earth gets colder, as during the Little Ice Age. Do the sunspots then, have an affect on the climate, as the evidence suggests? The answer is NO. The sunspots that we observe are merely indicators of the state of the Sun, but are not causative climate factors. The Sun is a vast sea of plasma-fusion reaction c lls.
When the plasma-density is high, solar activity is high. Overload conditions (sunspots) can occur in this strong environment.
Simplistically speaking, sunspots result from regional overload conditions on the Sun. When the fusion products are not vented fast enough, or too much back-pressure develops, some reaction cells become 'clogged up' and disintegrate.
When they (the fusion cells) cease to function, the plasma pressure stops and the cells blow out.
When they blow out in a big way, solar mass-ejections occur. The overall effect on the Earth's climate, however, is too minuscule to be notable.
No matter how big the mass ejections may become, even dramatically big, as they become in some cases, their duration is too short, their numbers are too low, and their energy is actually too puny to alter the overall climate on Earth. But they do have the potential to cause earthquakes.
What affects the climate on Earth is the changing density of the plasma surrounding the Sun. When the corona density is low, which coincides with fewer sunspots, fewer solar cosmic-rays become trapped in the corona. The resulting increase in solar cosmic-ray flux has a major affect on our climate, by affecting global cloudiness. The cause for long-term climate changes becomes evident by the long-term trend in the number and the size of the coronal holes that occur. The changing cloudiness and water-vapor density in the atmosphere reflects this trend.
Changes in the density of the solar corona that traps the solar cosmic rays to varying degrees, cause changes in cloudiness. The high-intensity Solar seasons that we experience as warmer climates, do not result from the Sun giving us more heat, or the greenhouse gases absorbing more heat. Instead, the warmer climates are caused by fewer clouds that reflect less sunlight back into space, and clearer skies that allow more sunlight to reach the surface. In addition, less cloudiness results in a stronger greenhouse effect.
When fewer clouds form, more water vapor remains in the atmosphere, which has a major effect. Increased water-vapor density in the atmosphere increases the greenhouse effect, because, up to 97% of the atmosphere's greenhouse effect is generated by water vapor. Oxygen contributes a bit. And some of the greenhouse effect is caused by the Rayleigh Scattering effect. Carbon gases have no comparable effect at.
The carbon greenhouse gases, such as CO2, affect nothing on the climate front. They contribute far too little to be significant. Their contribution to the greenhouse effect adds up to a millionth part of it.
The giant factor in the greenhouse equation, is first and foremost, the density of water vapor. This density is critically affected by solar cosmic-ray flux, and to some degree also by galactic cosmic-ray flux, which too, is increasing. Paradoxically, this giant factor that outweighs everything and is supported with real evidence, is completely ignored in what is termed "climate science." The ignorance is so deeply cutting that the only factor that is allowed to be considered for climate change in the world, is human activity, which ironically has no effect at all. 10% of a millionth part in the greenhouse equation, which the manmade CO2 does contribute, is too little to be significant in the face of the giant factors. I have presented some of the details of the CO2 myth in a video presentation with the title shown here.
We face the same paradox therefore, in what is called climate science, where the cosmic-ray factor is staunchly ignored in support of a false model, just as we face the hydrogen-spectrum paradox in cosmology that is ignored in support of the same false model. The results are tragic in both cases.
It would be wonderful if humanity had the power to affect the climate on Earth. It would be able to avoid the ice ages, which too, are caused by what affects our Sun.
That's why the climate story can't be allowed to end at this point, because the real causative factors that affect the Sun are also the factors that cause the ice ages, with the next Ice Age being only 30 years distant, potentially.
** Absolute Climate Change: a Science paradox
When we speak of an Ice Age - and I mean the actual, real Ice Age - the climate transition promises to be nothing small on the scale that we have experienced before.
It won't even be an environmental factor that causes this change.
We are facing an Absolute Climate Change that has not been experienced before in recorded history. We are looking for absolute factors to cause this absolute change.
The Little Ice Age in the 1600s had caused havoc and spread starvation across Europe when agriculture failed. It had killed 10-30% of the population with famine.
Nevertheless, the Little Ice Age was a minuscule affair that is barely recognizable on the big scene. It gave us a half of a degree in global cooling. This stands in comparison with the 20 degree cooling that the next Ice Age promises, according to historic ice core data. This is what Absolute Climate Change looks like.
This absolute climate change won't be caused by cosmic-ray-factored changes in cloudiness. The driving factor in this case, will be the Sun itself, with the Sun going inactive altogether, or nearly so. Nothing less can cause a 40-times colder world than the Little Ice Age had been.
The Sun, of course, will continue to exist, as an inactive star, and radiate energy in some form, from its residual stores, or from low-level nuclear fission energy being produced within it.
For this absolute change, the process that currently causes the corona plasma fluctuations and with it coronal holes, will undergo an absolute change.
With the Sun being externally powered by interstellar plasma streams that are electromagnetically focused onto the Sun, as in the example shown here as a model, we are looking at fragile dynamics that operate with built-in positive feedback at every stage.
A positive feedback system is one that operates wonderfully stable for as long as all the critical conditions are met. However, such a system is prone to chaotic collapse when the required conditions diminish below a critical minimal threshold.
Rapid transitions and chaotic collapse - as we see it illustrated here for the start of the last Ice Age - are typical for all positive feedback dynamics when critical thresholds are crossed. The solar system is no exception. Note the rapid Ice Age transition 120,000 years ago, which is encircled in the graph of the North Greenland Ice Core Project.
For this phenomenon, the plasma density is the critical threshold factor, in the interstellar plasma stream that feed into the solar system.
We can study the fluctuations and the trends and consequences, but not control them.
I have presented the relevant details of my studies in a number of video explorations. They all deal with the dynamics that unfold towards absolute climate change.
One of the items that are presented in the videos is important for the exploration here. It focuses critically on the coming Absolute Climate Change. This factor is important for determining how close we are in time to the Absolute Climate Change. This important factor is the solar wind.
The solar wind plays a 2-fold critical role in solar dynamics. It acts as a carrier that vents off plasma from the fusion cells. It also acts as a regulator when the positive feedback system delivers more plasma to the Sun than the plasma-fusion process requires. Thus, when the solar system runs strongly, strong solar winds result that carry off the excess plasma from the reaction cells. And as I said before, the solar winds also help in carrying the fusion products away from the Sun, so that its reaction cells won't clog up. Both functions are critical.
In order to explore the state of the solar wind as a critical component of the solar system, NASA had launched a spacecraft into a polar orbit around the Sun at a great distance from the Sun, as far as the distance to Jupiter. The spacecraft was named Ulysses. The mission planners had used the gravity of Jupiter to swing the satellite into a solar polar-trajectory. Here, something surprising happened when the satellite orbited over the polar regions. It encountered a void in the solar wind.
The satellite had measured a steady solar wind flowing away from the Sun at 800 km/second, except near the ecliptic where the solar wind gets messed up by the heliospheric current sheet that flows out from the Sun along the ecliptic, and in the polar regions were no solar wind was measured at all. This void is highly significant. It enables us to recognize a critical aspect of the plasma-powered Sun.
The void in solar wind is expected in the regions where the interstellar plasma stream interfaces with the plasma corona of the Sun, both for the inflowing and out flowing interface. As I said before, plasma streams become magnetically self-aligned as moving electric currents whereby they become increasingly concentrated by intense Primer Fields towards a sink point, from which in a weakened state they expand again and flow away through complimentary primer fields to become again an interstellar plasma streams flowing on to the next star.
The solar wind that Ulysses had measured got messed up in a big way during most of the second orbit. The second orbit occurred during a maximum period in solar activity. The maximum period is typically a period of high plasma density in the solar corona that inhibits the solar wind, but which also fluctuates dramatically. Ulysses measurements of the solar wind-speed reflects these fluctuations.
The third surprise was encountered in the third orbit, which again occurred during a quiet period in solar activity. The comparison between the 1st and 3rd orbit indicated that the solar wind-pressure was significantly less than it has been during the 1st orbit. The measured density and energy of the solar wind had diminished.
The solar wind pressure had diminished by 30%, and the cosmic-ray flux had correspondingly increased by 20%. These are enormous changes for this short time span of just 12 years.
If one projects the measured rate of diminishment forward in a linear manner, the long-term projection would be that the solar wind would diminish to zero in the 2030s at the measured rate. That the diminishment is real, is also reflected in the observed rate of weakening of the solar cycles,. Consequently, fear is being expressed now in some circles that another little ice age is coming up. However, the rapidly diminish solar wind pressure that Ulysses saw, suggests that this time around, possibly the entire positive feedback system that keeps the Sun's energy-level regulated within a narrow range of change, may shut down chaotically. It could potentially collapse before the interstellar plasma streams can recover.
During the Little Ice Age in the 1600s, the solar system might have come close to the point of collapse, but was recovered before the chaotic collapse had occurred. The recovery was likely enabled by some substantial remnants in the interstellar plasma streams that had remained from the medieval warm period, the last major climate high-point. The background plasma from this period seems to have pulled the Earth out of its cosmic rut in the 1600s.
Now, we are facing the repeat of a major weakening process, but this time without a massive historic background backing us up. This means, with a high probability, that the climate fading that is now in progress may become an Absolute Change. The Sun may simply go inactive, probably without much of a warning. This is the characteristic of the collapse of positive feedback systems.
When the solar winds diminish to zero, we have reached the point when there is not enough plasma-density left in the interstellar plasma streams to keep the solar system regulated to its normal level. When this happens, when the interstellar plasma streams can't keep up with what the plasma fusion requires to keep the Sun operating, the Sun will diminish. Nobody knows what happens then.. Without the solar winds flowing, which normally help to purge the fusion cells of their fusion products, large segments of fusion cells will likely clog up, collapse, and not recover.
What we see today in the form of coronal holes in the EUV band, may then the become the face of the Sun as a whole.
Interstellar plasma is focused around the Sun by magnetic phenomena. Magnetic phenomena are created by flowing electricity. Plasma streams are electric streams. The flowing plasma is consumed by the Sun in the process of synthesizing atomic elements. The resulting consumption of plasma maintains the flow that is needed for the magnetic fields to form, that focus the plasma unto the Sun. In this dynamic positive feed-back interplay, numerous parts of it support one-another. But, when one part fails, the entire dynamic system is affected and may stop functioning. When the magnetic fields diminish, plasma may no longer be focused onto the Sun. The plasma flow stops. The fields collapse. The Sun goes inactive..
When the Sun goes dim and cold, the next Ice Age begins. As I said before, the Sun will likely remain aglow for some time with residual energy within it. This may be the case until the plasma streams recover.
When we look through the umbra of the sunspots, we see a 70% darker Sun inside. This default, darker face, may be the face of the Sun as a whole in the near future, beginning potentially in the 2050s timeframe or before.
While it is certainly possible for society to survive at the 30% energy level, by relocating itself into the tropics where the solar irradiation is the greatest and is evidently sufficient for agriculture to be possible in a dimmer world, the question remains, will we stir our stumps and do it? Historically, humanity has survived the last Ice Age in the tropical regions, primarily in Africa, India, and Indonesia. Researchers begin to suggest that we may have survived there just barely.
In general, researchers place the world population at the end of the last Ice Age into the range of 1-10 million people. That's all we had to show for, after 2 million years of human development. However, some researchers also suggest that the human population may have dwindled to much lower numbers at various stages during the harsh times of the deep glaciation, perhaps to the level of just a few thousand. We may have stood at the threshold to extinction many times during the ice ages. This is what we need to prevent this time around.
Sure, it is hard to imagine that we are presently in a transition zone to such 'dangerous' times, that may have been deadly times in the past, and may be deadly again if we fail to respond with appropriate preparations for them. Evidence suggests that the progression towards the coming Ice Age may be advancing more rapidly than we dare to acknowledge.
That the current weakening in the plasma environment towards an inactive Sun is dramatically progressing, becomes apparent when we compare a current coronal hole from 2015, on the lower right, with the 1997 image produced by the same satellite in the same color band. The 1997 image reflects the state of the Sun as it was at the lowest point of its respective solar cycle. Note that the 1997 image is substantially lighter than the coronal hole seen by the same camera in 2015, which, however, occurs at a point that is still 5 years distant from the weak point in the solar cycles.
We shouldn't see such massive, deep-dark coronal holes that cover almost the entire Sun, and most definitely, we shouldn't see them so early in the solar cycle, 5 years from its low point. What we see here suggests that the plasma corona around the Sun is likely weakening more rapidly than the mere linear progression suggests, that has been chosen for the purpose of a comparative illustration.
In order to maintain our present 7 billion world population during the next Ice Age in possibly 30 years, massive infrastructures will have to be created in the tropics, much of it afloat on the seas, for the relocation of all the northern nations whose lands become uninhabitable in the cold darkness under an inactive Sun. While such infrastructures can be built, as are needed, and in time, created with automated industrial production for which the technologies, materials, and energy resources are all readily available, society may not find in its heart that human living is worthwhile enough to make the effort to assure its continued existence. That's what the current political and scientific landscape seems to suggest.
Whether or not the human world will make the effort to live, the Sun will not be affected by how society chooses. It will remain dormant for a season until the interstellar plasma streams recover for the Sun to restart. Such events seem to have occurred during the last Ice Age in 1470-year intervals. Once the Sun is re-lit, the available plasma become drawn down shortly thereafter, by which the Sun goes inactive again.
But what of it? We can live with that. For as long as we get 30% of the current solar radiation we can live easily in the tropics. The question remains, nevertheless, will we do it? Will we relocate the affected nations into the tropics? Or will humanity choose to let itself die?
The barrier that holds back the needed response for our future in the near Ice Age is not so much a physical barrier than it is a mental barrier. And at the heart of that mental barrier stands still this diversity of the two fundamentally opposite perceptions of the nature of the Sun that I addressed at the beginning with the paradox of the sunlight. We face the same kind of paradox when we look into the future with the next Ice Age on the horizon in 30 years.
But will we solve the paradoxes?
Nothing exotic is needed on this front. Nothing more needs to be done than to implement in our heart and mind a revolutionary uplift in our self-perception as human beings. That's what the Ice Age Challenge impels us towards. Should we succeed on this front, the breakthrough promises to end wars, killing, and even the depopulation ideologies. All of this can be accomplished on the wings of an elevated sense of humanity and universal love.
I wrote a 12-part series of novels some years ago towards the greater realization of scientific honesty, primarily with ourselves. Scientific honesty in physics, will likely unfold in the course of greater honesty with ourselves as human beings. I named the series of novels "The Lodging for the Rose." I present the series for free in the hope that we, as a society of human beings, who are the pinnacle of life as we know it, will yet succeed in achieving what must be achieved for our survival, regardless of how unlikely this may presently seem. We have the capacity as human beings for revolutionary developments, even to create a brand new world of ourselves with such power on all fronts that the coming near Ice Age will have no effect on our living. We may be far from this at the present, especially in the sciences where our greatest challenge is to achieve a high level of scientific honesty. Still, I think we are on the course to be winning.
Just look at this image, a simple scene of common flowers of a type that everyone is familiar with. This simple image now stands poised to change the face of science, and with it the face of the world. With the truth poised to be unfolding, a new mental Climate for Absolute Change on all fronts is about to begin. We will no longer see the Sun isolated and disconnected, and consuming itself, and our humanity and civilization in a like manner. Instead we will see the Sun as a part of the ever-ongoing creative process of the universe, and we will see ourselves as a humanity in a lateral lattice of creative and productive human beings, joining hands in the building of new worlds, grander and brighter than anything we have yet dared to imagine.
Let me close this video with a verse of a poem from one of my novels. The title of the poem is, Harvest is Seedtime:
Love for one-another, the human spring,
Mankind is afloat in a sea that is Love,
Seeds germinate, become plants,
Roots break the ground,
Love lifts the barriers, patiently,
Silently waiting, reaching for the sky.