critical importance for our climate on Earth.
is determined primarily by two factors.
One factor is the greenhouse effect of
"Without the greenhouse effect, the average near-surface air temperature would be –18°C, and not +15°C, as it is now."* The intensity of this effect is determined
by the so-called greenhouse gases. "The most important among these
'greenhouse gases' is water vapor, which is responsible for about 96 to 99 percent of the greenhouse effect. Among the other greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, CFCs, N2O, and O3), the most important is CO2, which contributes only 3 percent to the total greenhouse
effect. The manmade CO2 contribution to this effect may be about 0.05 to 0.25 percent."*
Much higher figures for the CO2 portion are frequently cited. However in real
terms, with high concentrations of water vapor in the air the CO2 effect is
largely masked by the water vapor. Only when the water vapor concentration is
reduced to low values, as during the deep cold of a glaciation cycle, will the
CO2 become a prominent factor.)
That CO2 is
not affecting the climate is evident by the historic fact that deep ice ages
have occurred in geologic time while the CO2 concentration was 18 times greater
than it is today, not just a few percent different. What count in a big way is
the water vapor, and on this front the Earth is getting colder.. CO2 is of no
factor that determines our climate is the intensity of the cloud formation.
white of the clouds reflect the incoming solar energy back into space. Both of
these factors are affected by the density of the cosmic-ray flux reaching the
Earth. The cosmic rays ionize the water molecules that thereby become 100-times
more attractive to one another, which increases the cloud formation, and at the
same time reduces the water vapor density, and thereby the greenhouse effect.
Both of these effects cause colder climates. The greenhouse effect moderates the
climate. If it is reduced we get hotter weather on clear days, and colder
Thus is what we are presently experiencing in the latest cooling trend
that began in 1998, according to measurements taken at Solar Terrestrial
Institute in Irkutsk, in Siberia. "The average annual air temperature in Irkutsk, which correlates well with the average annual global temperature of the surface air, reached its maximum of +2.3°C in 1997, and then began to drop to +1.2°C in 1998, to +0.7°C in 1999, and to +0.4°C in 2000."*
Referring to these measurements in 2003,
Zbigniew Jaworowski states,
"The current sunspot cycle is weaker than the preceding cycles, and the next two cycles will be even weaker. Bashkirtsev and Mishnich expect that the minimum of the secular cycle of solar activity will occur between 2021 and 2026, which will result in the minimum global temperature of the surface air. The shift from warm to cool climate might have already started."*
Ice Age is Coming - paper by
Zbigniew Jaworowski, M.D., Ph.D., D.Sc., chairman of the Scientific Council of
the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw.
now, and has been measured in Siberia, actually begun somewhat earlier. NASA
reports that the current size of the heliosphere has been the smallest that has
been seen in the past fifty years since measurements were taken, and that the
solar-wind pressure has become correspondingly weaker (The solar wind is 13%
cooler and 20% less dense). NASA also reports an accompanying increase in cosmic
radiation, by 20%. In addition to the weakened solar wind, "Ulysses (an ESA-operated
space craft, 19+years in operation) also finds that the sun's underlying
magnetic field has weakened by more than 30% since the mid-1990s..." (the
magnetic field is an electric phenomenon - magnetism is the result of the motion
of electric currents) "Thus (the reduced underlying
magnetic field of the Sun) reduces its natural shielding against cosmic
radiation, and thereby reduces the global temperature even more." (says
The Earth is
definitely in a major cooling trend that reflects the evidence of a reduced electric-density in
the plasma that is powering our sun. The Sun is getting weaker on all front.
observed condition reflects a short term trend that
will reverse itself in a decade or two, or whether it is the beginning of the
transition to the next Ice Age glaciation cycle, cannot be determined with any
technological instrumentation that we currently posses.
The Milankovitch (26/41/100,000-year) Cycles
The active climate factor: Cosmic-Ray density
What causes unpredictable short term temperature swings?
How solar variation cause mayor climate variation?
Of critical importance for our climate on
CO2 and the Ice Ages
No manmade global warming
Mass Protest by the Scientific Community
If we err by not making the preparations
The moral imperative
The coming Ice Age Renaissance
Age - Home Page
more on empire, universe, energy, NASA, science, NAWAPA, music, world
with LPAC videos on the Nation, Science, Economics, and Empire