The great Ice Age uncertainty is not located
in the realm of Ice Age physics, or in our understanding of the principles
involved, nor is it located in the lack of evidence. To the contrary, the
principles are well understood, the physics is replicated in laboratory
experiments, and the evidence that the Ice Age Challenge is real, is
monumental. The great uncertainty lies in the court of society’s response to
what is known and understood and is already evident around the world.
Society’s response is so faint at the present time that it is almost
non-existing. The question of whether there will be a response forthcoming
that enables the whole of humanity to live past the onrushing crisis and
create itself a bright future for it, for which the potential exists, remains
yet to be answered.
As I have said, the physics are simple and the physics plainly apparent. We
have observed many Grand Solar Minimum events in the past, and large Global
Warming events for more than three thousand years. But we saw their amplitude
and intervals shrinking. We saw the interglacial climate as a whole,
diminishing, measured in ice cores. We also saw the level of solar activity
measured in sunspot numbers and isotope ratios, diminishing at an ever-faster
Now in more recent time, past the year-2000, we saw even the solar wind
diminishing, measured at a rate of 30% per solar cycle, which is still
ongoing. Even the 11-year solar cycle itself - the heart beat of the solar
system - has slowed, from 11 to 13 years, and is increasing. The climate scene
on Earth has thereby become a scene of wide-ranging anomalies, such as
blizzards, floods, and droughts.
Ironically, what is deemed to be the next sequential Grand Solar Minimum
event, anticipated for the 2030/40 timeframe, is not a cyclical event at all
that the world will recover from. These events are history. The solar system
no longer has the underlying support to recover from its ongoing collapse.
While we will experience another Little Ice Age in the near future, the
climate collapse towards it, that is already ongoing, has a different cause
than the solar minimum events before. This different cause renders the now
unfolding Solar Minimum event unrecoverable. This means that the event is not
an event itself, but a transition phenomenon in the boundary zone to the start
of the next Ice Age that renders the Earth largely uninhabitable for 90,000
years into the future.
It is worth repeating that the great uncertainty in all this is not located in
the solar collapse process itself, and the corresponding collapse of the
climate on Earth. These aspects are certain. The astrophysical processes are
fairly predictable with scientific understanding of the principles involved.
We have numerous measurements on hand that tell us that we have come to the
end of the line of the interglacial world, with enormous consequences looming
ahead for society. However, the challenge to master the consequences comes
with grand opportunities in its wings for building us a New World with the
technological power to avoid the consequences. While all of these factors are
certain, our response to them is not. The response is presently a big ZERO.
Still, the time remaining to us is our space for repentance, a time to choose
life and develop a profound love for the wondrous humanity that we all share
and to protect it with the technological power that we have already in the
We need to develop us a new humanist paradigm on this front that inspires us
to built ourselves out of the new impending climate crisis, by building us a
New World that the Ice Age Climate cannot touch. Only then, when we are
committed to this path, will the uncertainty end.